Oscars 2027 predictions are already taking shape, and the Best Picture race looks stacked with blockbusters, auteurs and festival darlings. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is the early name to beat, but Project Hail Mary, Dune: Part Three and Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine are all pushing hard. Nominations are expected in January 2027, so here is who is leading the pack and who could surprise.
The Early Frontrunners for Best Picture
The Odyssey
Nolan’s epic is the film many analysts are backing. Early predictions place it at or near the top of the race. One critic argued it is still the one to beat, pointing to its practical effects and scale. Nolan also won Best Picture and Best Director for Oppenheimer, which gives the film real awards pedigree. It has also earned more than $1.7 billion worldwide, a commercial run that few Oscar hopefuls can match.
Project Hail Mary
Prediction markets currently list it as the frontrunner for a Best Picture nomination. The sci-fi hit has earned about $684 million worldwide, and strong reviews and audience love give it a rare blend of popularity and prestige. Think of how Top Gun: Maverick broke into the Best Picture lineup.
Dune: Part Three
The franchise has earned 15 Oscar nominations across its first two films, including Best Picture nods for both. Prediction markets put its nomination chances around 74.5%, behind only the two films above. Technical categories look safe, and Best Picture is a real possibility.
Auteur Films and Festival Contenders
Wild Horse Nine. McDonagh’s latest is described as another serious contender in early predictions, with its festival reception and campaign expected to matter most.
Elsinore. Simon Stone’s film is a near-lock for a Best Picture nomination, according to one critic, and it fits the classic Oscar-bait profile. That is not necessarily a bad thing, as voters love a backstage drama.
Disclosure Day. Steven Spielberg is always a threat, though the sci-fi, summer-release label could work against him.
Fjord. This is the momentum story. Its market odds jumped by 32% so far this year, which makes it a dark horse worth watching.
International wild cards. The Academy has recently included at least two largely non-English-language films in the Best Picture lineup for three years running. Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden could continue that streak, given that his Drive My Car earned a nomination.
Could a Big Name Stumble?
Not every heavy hitter is a safe bet. Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger, starring Tom Cruise, has been a favorite on many early lists. But it opened to just $8 million at the box office, and Anne Hathaway has since publicly defended it. A weak commercial start does not always sink an awards campaign, but it does make the path harder.
Meanwhile, films like Toy Story 5 are expected to be strong in the animation categories, while a surprise Best Picture nod is possible but less likely. If you want to see which films critics already love this year, check out our best movies of 2026 so far, ranked.
What to Watch Before Nominations
Several things will shape the race over the next few months:
- Critics’ awards and guild nominations often reveal which films have real momentum.
- Late-year releases can change the entire field, as they have in past seasons.
- Campaign strategy matters, especially for smaller films that need exposure.
Until the Academy announces its picks, every ranking stays provisional, and today’s frontrunner can fade quickly.
FAQs
Who is the early favorite for Best Picture?
The Odyssey is the most frequently named frontrunner, thanks to Nolan’s track record and its huge box office.
When will Oscar nominations be announced?
They are expected in January 2027. Check the Academy’s official calendar for exact dates.
Is Tom Cruise’s Digger still a contender?
It remains on some lists, but its weak box office opening has hurt its momentum.
Can a blockbuster win Best Picture?
Yes. Oppenheimer won in 2024, and Top Gun: Maverick earned a nomination, so box office success is no longer a barrier.