BAYERN TO HOST ARSENAL IN MUNICH TONIGHT
The Allianz Arena hosts what looks like the pick of the Champions League’s third matchday. Opta’s supercomputer makes Bayern and Arsenal its top two favourites to win the competition.
THE STAKES
Bayern are 10th in the league phase and Arsenal 7th, and both sides are unbeaten in Europe. There’s also revenge in the air: Arsenal beat Bayern 3-1 in last season’s league phase.
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ARSENAL: THE MACHINE
The Gunners have won 14 straight Champions League group-stage or league-phase matches and kept clean sheets in both games this season. They have six clean sheets in their last eight Champions League games. The press is relentless too, with 73% of their high-intensity pressures coming in the opposition half, the highest of any team after two matchdays. The one weakness is goals: their total of four is the lowest of any side in the top ten.
BAYERN: THE HOME FORTRESS
Vincent Kompany’s side drew 3-3 at Viking in their last European game, but they bounced back by putting six past RB Leipzig at the weekend. At home they’re formidable: 37 wins in their last 39 league-phase or group-stage home matches in the Champions League. At home in Europe against Arsenal, they’ve won five, drawn one and lost one.
TEAM NEWS
Bayern: Michael Olise is banned after his second yellow card at Viking. That hurts: he has 14 goal involvements in 10 games this season. Jamal Musiala is out with a thigh injury, and Manuel Neuer is a doubt with a foot problem. Serge Gnabry or Lennart Karl will likely come in on the right.
Arsenal: William Saliba is the only long-term absentee, so Mikel Arteta has almost a full squad.
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KEY BATTLES
Harry Kane vs Arsenal’s back line: Kane has scored 15 times against Arsenal and has netted in nine consecutive Champions League games for Bayern.
Bayern’s attack without Olise vs the best defence in the competition: Someone else has to create.
Luis Díaz vs Arsenal’s right flank: The Colombian ended his debut season with 15 Bundesliga goals and 14 assists, the first Bayern player since 2004/05 to reach 13 of each. He’s expected to start on the left as Bayern look for creativity without Olise.
The press: Whether Arsenal can play through Bayern’s first line of pressure could decide the game.
WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY
Opta gives Bayern a 46.4% chance of winning. Bookmakers have the hosts as slight favourites. Predictions split between Bayern 2-1 and a 1-1 draw.
RIZZSPORTS CALL
Arsenal’s defence will make this hard going for Bayern, but without Olise the hosts need a moment of Kane quality. Bayern have the edge with Kane around, with the possibility of him finding the net quite high in the Allianz Arena. Don’t be surprised if Díaz does too. He scored a hat-trick in Bayern’s 6-1 win over Leipzig, adding an assist, and it was his second Bundesliga hat-trick after the one at Hoffenheim in February. With Olise suspended, he’s the man Arsenal’s defence will fear most.
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